Burnley vs Derby — ThesisBet football research desk
Fixture facts
Competition
Championship (ELC)
Kickoff
Season
2026-27
Status
SCHEDULED
Numbers last updated
Venue form (season to date)
Burnley at home
Derby away
Win rate
25%
30%
Avg goals scored
1.51
1.45
Avg goals conceded
1.49
1.57
Clean sheet rate
0%
27%
Venue matches analysed
4
15
What these numbers are based on
Venue form uses each side's recent results in this venue role. Goal records use
the same venue window. Sample sizes are the match counts behind those averages —
thin samples stay visible rather than being padded.
Burnley at home
Derby away
Form sample
4
10
Goals sample
4
15
Model power rating (fixture context)
Burnley
27.2
Struggling
Derby
42.7
Struggling
Power ratings combine recent form with venue-aware goal context for this fixture. Deeper model
outputs (recommendations, expected-goals prediction, rotation and trap analysis) are part of the
Pro workspace.
Matchday proof
This fixture's matchday seal lives at
/verify/2026-09-19
(SHA-256 commit before kickoff; reveal after the matchday ends). The full index is
/verify.
This page is contextual research for the fixture — venue form, goal records,
and model power ratings. Nothing here is a tip, a pick, or a claim made before
kickoff.