Derby vs Birmingham — ThesisBet football research desk
Fixture facts
Competition
Championship (ELC)
Kickoff
Season
2026-27
Status
SCHEDULED
Numbers last updated
Venue form (season to date)
Derby at home
Birmingham away
Win rate
60%
30%
Avg goals scored
1.35
0.83
Avg goals conceded
1.08
1.33
Clean sheet rate
33%
20%
Venue matches analysed
15
15
What these numbers are based on
Venue form uses each side's recent results in this venue role. Goal records use
the same venue window. Sample sizes are the match counts behind those averages —
thin samples stay visible rather than being padded.
Derby at home
Birmingham away
Form sample
10
10
Goals sample
15
15
Model power rating (fixture context)
Derby
50.7
Average
Birmingham
41.6
Struggling
Power ratings combine recent form with venue-aware goal context for this fixture. Deeper model
outputs (recommendations, expected-goals prediction, rotation and trap analysis) are part of the
Pro workspace.
Matchday proof
This fixture's matchday seal lives at
/verify/2026-09-12
(SHA-256 commit before kickoff; reveal after the matchday ends). The full index is
/verify.
This page is contextual research for the fixture — venue form, goal records,
and model power ratings. Nothing here is a tip, a pick, or a claim made before
kickoff.